[doconnor]

There are three probable by-election coming up.

Winnipeg North - Must be called by October 27, 2010.

Formally held by the NDP.

Vaughan - Despite news reports, the Liberal MP hasn't formally resigned his seat, but almost certainly will in the next few weeks to run for mayor of the city of Vaughan.

This is a suburban riding held by the Liberals.

Dauphin-Swan River-Marquette - The MP has announced he will step down in September to run for mayor of Dauphin.

This is a rural Manitoba riding held by the Conservatives.

The by-elections can't be called until 11 days after an MP formally resigns. So between the deadline for Winnipeg North and the timing of these two resignations, there will be a relatively narrow window when the by-elections can be called. Basically late September to sometime in October.

Also, by-elections won't be called if it looks like there will be a general election. With the census controversy over the summer and the down swing in the Conservative's poll numbers reported today (Thursday), there is a real possibility there will be a general election this fall. I'd guess it is a 50/50 chance right now. If there are any more candidates out there, they should start the nomination process right away.

I won't recommend Dauphin-Swan River-Marquette as a target riding as it is too rural and likely too conservative for us.

The question is should we target Vaughan instead of Winnipeg North. While there are more members in the Greater Toronto Area then Winnipeg, Vaughan in a very car oriented area, so its hard to find people on the public sidewalk, which it probably the easiest way to collect signatures (going door to door is more time consuming because you have to walk more and most people don't answer their door). Also would be hard for volunteers without their own cars to get to Vaughan. Winnipeg North it a more urban riding with store lined streets that some people walk to.

One option is to collect signatures for both, and decide which one to run in once some progress has been made. If we have candidates, we could run in both.

It in important to try and find candidates as soon as possible. Signatures collection can begin before the by-election is called, but a candidate has be selected first.

A pamphlet should be designed so people collecting signature have something to hand out.

[Rintaran]

Actually the chances of a fall election, despite the rhetoric, is still pretty slim. Most pundits are marking Spring as the earliest, and the pre-campaign styles of Harper and Ignatieff suggest this as well. They're both in the slow process of trying to shape the question for the ballot box. Harper is trying to frame it as "Majority Conservative vs a Coalition", and Ignatieff is trying a slightly more upbeat approach of voting him in to put an end to Harpers "politics of madness". Neither are really doing much posturing in terms of the census controversy (that's more the NDP's kick at the Cons).

With that in mind, I also think eliminating Dauphin-Swan River-Marquette off-hand as being too rural and too conservative may be a mistake. Our general policy doesn't touch much on the social aspect of politics, and we're not tree-huggers by word. I think conservatively minded individuals may actually work well for the copyrights and patents debate, and those in rural areas as well. In the land of farmers, they need seeds, and there are patents on a number of genetically modified seeds, causing them to be harder to obtain, and more expensive for a farmer. By reducing patent time (or eliminating it), that opens the window for these products to get into their hands, and help save their farm. The same can be said of different techniques and machinery. The forced expansion of internet services into rural areas may also affect this community, bringing Net Neutrality as an issue that some in the area may never have had need to think about. By leveraging how long its taken them to get said internet, I think that says a lot about how they might get throttled. On top of all that, rural communities are more impressed when people go door to door, and even offer to pitch in and give someone a hand, than an urban area, where such activities are viewed with great suspicion through a peephole. If we were to try for this area, we would definitely need someone from this area however. It's not the type of place to parachute a candidate into. Additionally, this riding has flipped flopped over the years between the Cons/CA/Reform/PCs, the Libs, and the NDP/CCF, though this has stabilized in the past decade.

Of the three by-election areas you've mentioned however, I would lean most toward Vaughn. Both Winnipeg North and Dauphin-Swan River-Marquette (DSRM) elected their representatives with over 61% of the riding's votes in 2008. That makes them pretty tough areas to break into. Unlike DSRM, Winnipeg North has been pretty staunchly NDP since its inception. Vaughn was split 49 Libs-34 Cons in 2008, indicating that residents weren't overly convinced by any of the candidates. It also showed a softening of traditionally staunch support for the Libs. If there's someone in the area who happens to be able and willing, I'd hit the ground running as quickly as legal.

You make a good point regarding city demographics for commuter-Vaughn vs local-Winnipeg. Other than running and advertising some sort of special event, I'm not sure how to get signatures from a non-door answering, non-sidewalk using community.

[Mikkel Paulson]

Actually the chances of a fall election, despite the rhetoric, is still pretty slim.

Probably, but it's still something we need to be prepared for. Ultimately, we don't know that there's an election until we see it on the evening news.

I think conservatively minded individuals may actually work well for the copyrights and patents debate, and those in rural areas as well.

Sure. All you have to do is frame bill C-32 as a legislative equivalent to the big auto bailout. It's the same thing: corporations "too big to fail" go to the government, hat in hand, asking it to support their obsolete business model. It's a violation of the free market and prevents the industry from evolving to meet the needs of the consumer.

All a matter of phrasing our platform in terms that our prospective constituents want to hear.

In the land of farmers, they need seeds, and there are patents on a number of genetically modified seeds, causing them to be harder to obtain, and more expensive for a farmer. By reducing patent time (or eliminating it), that opens the window for these products to get into their hands, and help save their farm.

Definitely. Farmers would be a great target group, particularly on our patent platform, if we get a candidate who is willing to do enough driving to make it to dozens of rural communities.

The same can be said of different techniques and machinery. The forced expansion of internet services into rural areas may also affect this community, bringing Net Neutrality as an issue that some in the area may never have had need to think about. By leveraging how long its taken them to get said internet, I think that says a lot about how they might get throttled.

For sure, and we're discussing including the extension of high-speed internet service to remote areas as part of our platform.

You make a good point regarding city demographics for commuter-Vaughn vs local-Winnipeg. Other than running and advertising some sort of special event, I'm not sure how to get signatures from a non-door answering, non-sidewalk using community.

Really, door-knocking is the best approach. It takes a while, but in my experience, a fair number of people will sign when you explain to them that in doing so they're not committing to vote for you. It also provides a candidate with a chance to get experience on the doorstep before the writ drops.


You seem to be forgetting the #1 reason to run in a by-election: to run. If we have to parachute someone in, so be it. They don't have to be in a particularly likely riding to benefit us. As soon as we contest an election, we'll become a registered party, and will be eligible for all sorts of fun things. To that end, I think we need to start contacting area members to see who would be interested in running or door-knocking on our behalf. Honestly, I think devoting more than a hundred dollars to any of these ridings would be a waste of resources.

[Rintaran]

You seem to be forgetting the #1 reason to run in a by-election: to run. If we have to parachute someone in, so be it. They don't have to be in a particularly likely riding to benefit us. As soon as we contest an election, we'll become a registered party, and will be eligible for all sorts of fun things. To that end, I think we need to start contacting area members to see who would be interested in running or door-knocking on our behalf.

I thought the point of running itself was self explanatory, so I didn't bother mentioning it. We should run someone, but it would be better not to parachute if at all possible. Also, is there any progress on the non-profit status? We're going to need that if we're going to do any fundraising to help support candidates in any upcoming election or by-election.

Honestly, I think devoting more than a hundred dollars to any of these ridings would be a waste of resources.

See, now I'm confused. If you believe devoting more than a hundred dollars would be a waste of resources, how can we simultaneously ask someone to dish out $1000+ to run?

I suppose the questions are all moot anyways if no one steps forward to run any of these areas. Still interesting avenues to explore though.

[Mikkel Paulson]

I thought the point of running itself was self explanatory, so I didn't bother mentioning it. We should run someone, but it would be better not to parachute if at all possible. Also, is there any progress on the non-profit status? We're going to need that if we're going to do any fundraising to help support candidates in any upcoming election or by-election.

We're already an NPO. Once our first candidate is registered, we'll be able to take real donations. I don't know the specifics.

See, now I'm confused. If you believe devoting more than a hundred dollars would be a waste of resources, how can we simultaneously ask someone to dish out $1000+ to run?

They're not paying $1000. It's a deposit that's refunded upon proper completion of post-election procedure.

[doconnor]

Really, door-knocking is the best approach. It takes a while, but in my experience, a fair number of people will sign when you explain to them that in doing so they're not committing to vote for you.

I agree that people will sign if approached. The real question is what is the most efficient way of meeting people who live in a riding. The best approach may depend on the weather and the time of day.

Honestly, I think devoting more than a hundred dollars to any of these ridings would be a waste of resources.

How important is it to become registered, and be able to give receipts for donations?

See, now I'm confused. If you believe devoting more than a hundred dollars would be a waste of resources, how can we simultaneously ask someone to dish out $1000+ to run?

The $1000 is a deposit that would be returned.

[Nuitari]

We have
5 members in Winnipeg North
2 in DSRM
1 in Vaughan

[Mikkel Paulson]

I think Winnipeg North is the way to go. We can more easily look to neighbouring constituencies for volunteers, too.

[Rintaran]

We're already an NPO. Once our first candidate is registered, we'll be able to take real donations. I don't know the specifics.

Strange. So we can't make out receipts, have proper fundraisers and the like until after we've already run through one election or by-election then? Or do we just require someone to be running in an election / by-election in order to be allowed those capabilities?

They're not paying $1000. It's a deposit that's refunded upon proper completion of post-election procedure.

Ah. I did not know that. Thank-you for clarifying. They'd only be out any investment earnings then, which in the current market, is a loss not a gain anyways. I never considered running for office myself and so had never looked into it much.

We have
5 members in Winnipeg North
2 in DSRM
1 in Vaughan

Given the numbers, Winnipeg North would be a better option for getting word out about a candidate, the party, and copyright reform. Have e-mails gone out to people in this area yet? Although a few politicians will volunteer to run, most end up being directed into running by people around them. Someone may just need a nudge.

[Mikkel Paulson]

Strange. So we can't make out receipts, have proper fundraisers and the like until after we've already run through one election or by-election then? Or do we just require someone to be running in an election / by-election in order to be allowed those capabilities?

We just need a registered candidate. Once their paperwork is submitted and approved, we'll be registered.

Given the numbers, Winnipeg North would be a better option for getting word out about a candidate, the party, and copyright reform. Have e-mails gone out to people in this area yet? Although a few politicians will volunteer to run, most end up being directed into running by people around them. Someone may just need a nudge.

We're planning to do some telephone canvassing over the next week or two.

[Biogrand]

We have
5 members in Winnipeg North

Winnipeg North is predominately ethnic rich community particularly Filipino, aboriginal, Indian, Chinese/Japanese/Korea.

It is definitely not a conservative strong-hold, but at the moment it looks like going to be a tight battle between Liberal - Lamoureux and the NDP - Chief. I would say they're 40-40-10 (Liberal-NDP-Conservative)

Thats the gauge of a North Winnipeger ( hint; me :] )

[Mikkel Paulson]

According to Elections Canada, the by-election in Winnipeg North must be called by October 27 and the by-election in Vaughan can be called no earlier than October 25. I think it's pretty safe to say that, unless there's a general election in the air, we'll see a by-election called somewhere in that three-day window.